AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Mediation Push: Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir has arrived in Tehran as Washington signals “slight progress” in talks, but the deal still hangs on two big sticking points: Iran’s uranium stance and its push for tolls on Strait of Hormuz shipping—something the US calls a deal-breaker and is preparing a “Plan B” against. Energy Shock Watch: Oil prices swung as markets weigh whether Hormuz reopening is near; meanwhile, Iran’s toll talk and enforcement fears keep shipping tight, with downstream fuel prices reacting. Regional Spillover: Iraq says Hormuz exports are down to under 10% of pre-war levels and is drafting an emergency plan for a $9.5bn monthly deficit; three Iraqi sailors also went missing in the Gulf. Pakistan Domestic Relief: Petrol and high-speed diesel prices were cut again ahead of Eid, while power consumers face fresh warnings over fake QR-code subsidy links. Trade & Industry: PPP chief Bilawal announced Karachi’s first public-private partnership port project (Keti Bandar), aiming to boost coastal trade and jobs.

US-Iran Mediation Push: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iran’s Abbas Araghchi again in Tehran as Washington and Tehran inch toward a framework—yet the uranium standoff and Strait of Hormuz tolls remain the deal-breakers. Nuclear Red Line: Trump says the US will eventually take Iran’s highly enriched uranium, while Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered it must not be sent abroad, hardening Tehran’s position. Hormuz Pressure: Rubio calls “some good signs,” but warns a tolling system would make a deal “unfeasible,” keeping shipping and oil markets jittery. Security Spillover: In India’s Pathankot, a man was arrested for allegedly spying via internet CCTV feeds sent to handlers in Pakistan. Local Economy: Pakistanis brace for Eid al-Adha with prices still rising, while Sindh bans inter-provincial wheat movement and LESCO orders removal of dangerous double electricity connections within a week.

UN Climate Accountability: The UN General Assembly passed a resolution backing the ICJ’s 2025 climate advisory opinion, urging legal duties on states to cut emissions and warning of consequences for failure—141 votes in favour, with the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel among the dissenters. US-Iran Mediation Shockwaves: Pakistan’s push to keep US-Iran talks alive is colliding with hard red lines—Tehran says it’s narrowing gaps, but Iran’s Supreme Leader has ordered near-weapons-grade uranium must not leave the country, while Trump rejects any Strait of Hormuz tolls; the result is whiplash in oil markets and renewed uncertainty for the ceasefire timeline. Energy Cost Pressure at Home: A parliamentary forum warns Pakistan’s petroleum levy should not be a fiscal tool, as fuel-linked inflation hits low-income households—while analysts flag another possible petrol hike of Rs5–10 per litre. Tech & Health Spotlight: A British-Pakistani scientist in Qatar says a quick AI eye scan could detect dementia and diabetic nerve damage years early, with big implications for Pakistan’s rising diabetes burden. Business & Markets: Sitara Petroleum’s PSX IPO raised Rs4.8bn, and Gulf stocks rebounded on deal hopes and firmer oil.

US-Iran Tension, Pakistan in the Middle: Iran says it’s reviewing Washington’s latest proposal after Trump warned he could wait “a few days” for the “right answers” but warned renewed attacks if talks fail; Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi is again in Tehran to keep the message flow moving. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Iran is tightening control around Hormuz as tanker traffic remains disrupted, with reports of dozens of ships still trapped and Iran formalising new “red lines” for transit. Diplomacy vs Strikes: A tense Trump-Netanyahu phone call reportedly showed a split—Netanyahu pushing for renewed strikes while Trump leans on diplomacy. Pakistan Trade & Policy: MQM-P’s Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui joins the Economic Coordination Committee, while the PTA has launched a telecom tariff comparison tool to help consumers track price changes. Business Spotlight: FaisalTown Group wins two International Asia Pacific Property Awards for its Pakistan projects. IMF Budget Talks: IMF staff wrap-up leaves FY2027 budget discussions set to continue, with a 2% primary surplus target in focus.

US-Iran Brinkmanship: Trump says Iran talks are in the “final stages,” but warns of “nasty” strikes if no deal lands—while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards vow any renewed aggression could spread war “beyond the region.” Pakistan Mediation: Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi is in Tehran again, carrying messages as both sides reportedly narrow gaps on a US-Iran framework; Iran says exchanges continue via Pakistan and highlights its role in stability. Energy Shock Watch: With the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz under heavy pressure, the US boarded an Iranian-flagged tanker and redirected dozens of ships; Pakistan is also weighing permanent strategic oil reserves as diesel smuggling from Iran drains the exchequer. China-CPEC Push: PM Shehbaz reaffirmed “ironclad” China ties and CPEC’s next phase with a senior Chinese delegation, while Pakistan plans a Rs75 SBP commemorative coin for the 75th anniversary. Local Industry Spotlight: Pakistan showcased Sialkot-made footballs at a UN event, underlining export craftsmanship. Digital Policy: GSMA urges Pakistan to cut telecom taxes and simplify the fiscal regime in Budget 2026-27 to boost connectivity.

Middle East Pressure: US President Trump said he was “hour away” from new Iran strikes, but delayed them after UAE, Saudi and Qatar asked for more time—while warning the window for action could be “two or three days” if talks fail. Energy Security: Pakistan’s petroleum minister Ali Pervaiz Malik urged more focus on local oil and gas reserves, flagged pending refinery upgrades, and warned rising costs from Strait of Hormuz disruptions and gas circular debt. Green Finance: Pakistan allocated about Rs11.256bn (35%) from its first domestic Green Sukuk to dams and hydropower, including Garuk Storage Dam and Naigaj Dam. Balochistan Minerals: PM Shehbaz ordered immediate Frontier Corps deployment in Rakhshan to create a security corridor for mineral projects. Islamic Banking Growth: Islamic banking assets are projected to hit Rs18–19trn by Dec 2026. Markets & Trade: Textile and clothing exports rebounded 21.27% YoY in April, while Pakistan secured $11.068bn foreign assistance in 10 months of FY26. Local Governance: Sindh Assembly was told the BRT Red Line biogas plan will shift gas to industry as buses move to electricity.

Iran-US Brinkmanship: Trump says he’s “an hour away” from authorising fresh strikes but has paused again after Iran’s latest proposal via Pakistan, warning a “big hit” could come within days if no deal lands. Regional Security: Iran warns it will “open new fronts” if attacks resume, while UAE blames drones on its Barakah nuclear plant on Iraqi territory. Pakistan Diplomacy: Pakistan and Russia held strategic stability talks in Moscow, with both sides agreeing to keep coordinating on arms control and non-proliferation. Aviation & Sovereignty: Pakistan extended the airspace ban on Indian flights until June 24. Power Sector: NEPRA reserved its verdict on a proposed Rs1.93/unit tariff relief, citing lower capacity and system charges. Markets & Industry: Service Long March Tyres raised Rs5.83bn in its PSX IPO book-building; Pakistan also reported first-ever US crude imports in the current fiscal year. Climate Risk: Karachi braces for severe heatwaves with wet-bulb-style humidity risks highlighted across South Asia.

Middle East De-escalation: Trump says the planned Tuesday strike on Iran is “on hold” after Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE asked for restraint, while he warns the US military is still ready for a “full, large-scale assault” if talks fail. Iran-US Mediation: Iran confirms it sent a response to the latest US proposal via Pakistan, with officials insisting nuclear enrichment is “non-negotiable” and warning diplomacy won’t mean surrender. Pakistan’s Dual Role: Reuters reports Pakistan quietly deployed ~8,000 troops, JF-17 jets, drones and HQ-9 air defence to Saudi Arabia under a mutual pact—while publicly mediating. Energy Shock Watch: Oil slid about 2% on the pause, but markets remain jittery as Hormuz risks and blockade fears linger. Domestic Pressure Points: Pakistan condemns a drone attack on the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant; meanwhile, IMF talks push higher BISP payments and provinces are asked to raise Rs400bn more to meet targets. Tax Crackdown: Cigarette sector enforcement against tax evasion will continue nationwide, Asif says.

Middle East Diplomacy: Pakistan has again relayed a revised Iranian peace proposal to the US, but both sides are still “changing goalposts” and time is running out, as Trump warns the “clock is ticking.” Saudi Security: Reuters reports Pakistan has deployed about 8,000 troops, JF-17 jets, drone squadrons and an HQ-9 air defence system to Saudi Arabia under a confidential defence pact—reportedly Saudi-funded and run by Pakistani personnel. Energy Shock Watch: The IEA chief says commercial oil inventories may last only “several weeks,” with Hormuz disruption and rising demand draining stocks fast; opaque oil deals are now testing the dollar system. Markets & Costs: PSX closed bearish, down 3,791 points, while Pakistan kept June electricity tariffs unchanged to avoid a fuel-adjustment hit. Trade & Tech: TDAP launched an export help desk in Balochistan; IT exports stayed above $400m for a second straight month. Business Relief: Eid business-hour restrictions were lifted nationwide until May 31.

Iran-US Deadlock Intensifies: Trump again warned Tehran “the clock is ticking” and said “there won’t be anything left of them” unless a peace deal moves fast, as Pakistan-mediated talks stall and fresh Gulf drone attacks hit US allies—UAE reported a fire near Barakah nuclear plant and Saudi intercepted drones—keeping Strait of Hormuz risk and oil-price pressure front and centre. Oil & Markets Jolt: Brent pushed above $110 after the UAE incident, while PSX saw selling pressure with KSE-100 down about 1,200–1,600 points in early trade on renewed “war premium” fears. Pakistan Diplomacy: PM Shehbaz thanked Qatar for backing Pakistan-led peace efforts, underscoring Islamabad’s mediation role as negotiations wobble. Local Business & Finance: FPCCI urged budget tax relief for salaried people (cut top rate to 30% and scrap super tax). Corporate Watch: Pakistan Oxygen CEO Matin Amjad resigned effective June 25; SLM Tyres IPO book building was fully subscribed in seconds. Road Safety: Two police officers were killed when a speeding dumper rammed a parked police van on Karachi’s M9.

US-Iran Deadlock at Hormuz: Talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are still far apart, with Iran saying Washington has offered “no tangible concessions” and floated tough demands on uranium and assets, while Trump warns “the clock is ticking.” A drone strike near the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant sparked a fire, prompting the IAEA to call it “grave concern,” even as radiation levels reportedly stayed normal. Pakistan as Mediator: PM Shehbaz renewed Pakistan’s push for de-escalation, thanking Qatar for backing Pakistan-led peace efforts, while Interior Minister Naqvi met Iran’s leadership to keep US-Iran dialogue moving. Indus Waters Treaty Win: The PCA delivered a supplemental award upholding Pakistan’s rights under the IWT, including maximum pondage limits for India’s western-river hydropower projects. Business Pulse: SECP data shows 10,511 new companies registered in Pakistan from Feb–Apr, and FPCCI is urging tax relief for salaried workers ahead of Budget 2026-27. Regional Signals: China says it will buy at least $17bn in US agricultural goods annually, as trade tensions continue to reshape supply chains.

Heritage at Risk: In Peshawar, the rain- and quake-weakened ancestral homes of Dilip Kumar and Raj Kapoor—both declared national heritage—are now feared to collapse any time, with locals and heritage experts urging urgent preservation before the monsoon hits. Heat Stress: Karachi and parts of Pakistan are living through a brutal extreme-heat reality, with temperatures repeatedly above 40°C and health and power strain rising. Hormuz Diplomacy: Pakistan’s mediation push continues as Iran says it has “no trust” in the US and will negotiate only if Washington is serious, while Trump claims Xi supports reopening the Strait of Hormuz—yet China’s stance remains cautious. Urban Showcase: CM Maryam Nawaz arrives in Baku to represent Pakistan at the World Urban Forum, pitching Punjab’s affordable housing model. Markets & Policy: PSX slid again amid stalled US-Iran talks, while IMF-linked tax enforcement measures are set for FY27. Trade Boost: Seafood exports crossed $500m, helped by new access to Russia.

Iran-US Mediation Push: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived in Tehran for a two-day push to restart stalled Iran–US talks, as Israel kept striking Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz remained the pressure point. Hormuz Shipping Shock: Iran says it will unveil a new Hormuz traffic mechanism with designated routes and fees, while the US claims it has redirected 78 ships and disabled four; markets are jittery and Bitcoin slid below $78,000 on fresh Hormuz threats. Diplomatic Friction: Russia says a US-led UN resolution on Hormuz is “not right,” echoing China’s criticism, even as European states reportedly seek coordination with Iran/IRGC for ship passage. Pakistan-US Investor Assurance: Naqvi also met US officials and assured security for American firms tied to the Reko Diq project, alongside talk of restoring direct flights. Ports & Trade Moves: NDMS has started dredging at Karachi’s Port Qasim to build indigenous capability, while Pakistan’s seafood exports crossed $500m for the first time. Eid Relief in Balochistan: Lockdown restrictions were relaxed until June 1 ahead of Eid-ul-Azha.

IMF Pressure on Pakistan’s Economy: The IMF has imposed 11 new conditions for Pakistan’s reforms, including likely future hikes in petroleum, gas and electricity prices, plus tighter fiscal discipline and higher tax targets—raising affordability worries for consumers already hit by inflation. Fuel Relief, Still Volatile: Pakistan cut petrol and diesel by Rs5 per litre for the coming week, a short breather after earlier increases tied to the global oil shock. Energy Security Push: Pakistan received its largest-ever LNG cargo from Qatar (over 210,000 cubic metres), as Hormuz disruptions keep supply chains jittery. PSX Mood Turns Risk-Off: The KSE-100 stayed bearish, falling about 903 points. West Asia Talks Stuck: Iran’s FM says “lack of trust” in the US is blocking a deal, while Trump signals tougher impatience—keeping Strait of Hormuz uncertainty front and centre for regional trade and energy costs. China Capital Move: Pakistan’s first Panda Bond debut (supported by ADB/AIIB) marks a new renminbi funding channel for green infrastructure.

Middle East Shockwaves: US officials say Saudi Arabia and the UAE carried out unannounced strikes on Iran—an escalation that marks the first known direct attacks by both Gulf states. Ceasefire & Nuclear Standoff: Trump says he “threw away” Iran’s latest nuclear proposal after reading the first line, while Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araqchi warns Washington sends “mixed signals” and that talks can move only if the US is “serious.” Hormuz Pressure on Trade: Iran says it can’t trust the Americans; China urges reopening the Strait of Hormuz; and a Malaysian-linked ship cleared the strait with Iranian permission. Pakistan in the Middle: Pakistan says 11 citizens and 20 Iranians were repatriated from US-seized vessels, and Trump again credits Pakistan’s mediation for the Iran ceasefire. Local Business Relief: Punjab eases market closure rules until June 1, letting shops stay open till 10pm ahead of Eidul Azha. Energy & Cost of Living: Petrol and diesel prices in Pakistan drop by Rs5 per litre from May 16. Industry Moves: ADB and AIIB back Pakistan’s first Panda bond for green infrastructure; L’Oréal localises a key shampoo ingredient raw material in Pakistan.

Iran-US/BRICS Diplomacy: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi met PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi and also held talks with NSA Ajit Doval, focusing on regional stability after the Feb 28 US-Israeli attacks and a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire. Health Warning: WHO says nicotine pouches are “engineered for addiction,” with sales surging to 23bn units in 2024 and regulators struggling to keep up. Counter-terror Crackdown: Maharashtra ATS carried out raids across 40+ locations targeting a network linked to Shahzad Bhatti, with 53 people questioned. Middle East Energy Pressure: Italy warned Hormuz blockade risks global energy and trade shocks; meanwhile China urged dialogue to end the Iran conflict and keep peace talks open. Pakistan-China Business Push: PM Shehbaz praised “historic” Pak-China ties in a meeting with a Chinese business delegation, highlighting digital economy cooperation. Industry Moves: Pak Suzuki started a Karachi biogas plant and solar system; KOICA launched a Pak-Korea technical textile centre in Faisalabad. Trade/Investment Signals: OICCI estimates IP violations cost Rs860bn annually; leather exporters ask for simpler, one-window compliance. Markets: PSX slid for a fifth straight session amid US-Iran uncertainty and higher yields.